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Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook

Key issues:

  • Special operations continue in Turkey’s south east;
  • PKK conflict taking on a more complex character;
  • Many detained in domestic crackdowns;
  • State-sponsored Kurdish militias involved in massacre;
  • Islamic threat to secular elite deemed real;
  • Government hardens position on secular elites;
  • Clandestine plot to overthrown Turkish government;
  • Corruption not the key obstacle in Turkey’s EU accession talks.

  • Публикация EGF  |  Дата: 25.06.2009  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.06.2009  |  Безопасность
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The Big Caucasus. Consequences of the "Five Day War", Threats and Political Prospects  PDF  (1 Mb)

Sergey Markedonov, a prescient analyst of the Caucasus, assesses in this Xenophon Paper the possible implications of the August 2008 “five day war”. He initiates a discussion on the region’s “unfreezing of the conflicts” and provides an in-depth description of the existent non-recognised state entities and the other ethno-political conflicts with which the Caucasus is ridden. The author also explores the perspectives of major regional and extra-regional stakeholders in the area and the ambitious policies they deploy at the moment: the Russian stabilisation project, the American “Greater Middle East” project and the European Union social and economic (soft security) project...

  • Sergey Markedonov  |  Дата: 01.05.2009  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 01.05.2009  |  Безопасность
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North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the Maghreb

Key issues:

  • Maghreb terror threat escalated to regional level;
  • Fresh round of attacks by Al Qaeda terrorist cells in Algeria;
  • Government confidence building measures amidst pre-electoral terror threat;
  • Algeria’s predicament: more terror with fewer insurgents;
  • High profile terror arrests sweep Morocco;
  • Lack of confidence in anti-terrorism measures, despite the crackdowns;
  • Terrorism threat exacerbated by Morocco’s social and economic concerns;
  • Clashes between militants and the army continue in Mauritania;
  • Presence of Al Qaeda in Mauritania likely;
  • Al Qaeda suspects jailed in Tunisia;
  • Libyan authorities remain vigilant in wake of anticipated attacks;
  • Maghreb militants prevented from launching attacks in Europe;
  • Maghreb anti-terrorism measures will require greater coordination.

  • Публикация EGF  |  Дата: 13.03.2009  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.03.2009  |  Безопасность
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Islamic Extremism as a Political Force  PDF  (1 Mb)

  • Michael Fredholm  |  Дата: 12.10.2006  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.02.2011  |  Безопасность
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