27 Февраля 2021
TURKMENISTAN: GAS UNDER PRESSURE
 (201 Kb)
In October 2008, an audit by the British company Gaffney, Cline and Associates - GCA propelled Turkmenistan to the rank of the world’s second largest gas producer. This revelation confirmed the assertions of Saparmurad Niazov, the grotesque Turkmenbashy – Father of all the Turkmens – who, from 1985 until his death in December 2006, reigned over his country without sharing power. Less than a year later, two publications which appeared this past September, sow confusion among international energy experts and raise many questions. These two papers, one – an article written by Arkady Dubnov for the Russian newspaper Vremya Novosteï and the other – a report by the German NGO, the Eurasian Transition Group (ETG), - cast doubt on the estimations made public in October 2008.
Arkady Dubnov relies on information gleaned from Russian officials, while it is a Turkmen source behind the ETG pieced. In summation, they lead us to understand that the Turkmen authorities misled the managers of GCA by providing them with manipulated and falsified data. Disinformation or truth? At present, it is difficult to say. Nonetheless, one cannot really avoid wondering about a certain number of questions surrounding this polemic over resources, real or supposed, of Turkmenistan. This constitutes a new episode in the struggle in which the great powers are engaging for control and exploitation of the formidable energy resources of Central Asia.
North Caucasus Security Outlook
Russia during the Putin (and now Putin-Medvedev) years has, to a good degree, been successful in casting an image of increasing national wealth, external power and domestic stability...
Russian Relations to the Gulf Region in a Changing Geopolitical Environment
(375 Kb)
Scholars of most academic disciplines across the social sciences have a fondness for comparing different regions in order to evaluate :
Eastern Caspian Sea Energy Geopolitics: A Litmus Test for the U.S. – Russia – China Struggle for the Geostrategic Control of Eurasia
(358 Kb)
European energy and transport - Trends to 2030: update 2007
(3 Mb)
The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its 2005 update. The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political Prognosis
The former-Yugoslav entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is gripped by deep political crisis at present. Divisions between Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslims) minorities are deepening inside the country, undermining the work and institutions of government, scuttling any sense of national unity and threatening to plunge Bosnia into the vortex of ethnic conflict...
Conventional Security Risks to Central Asia. A Summary Overview.
(199 Kb)
This paper briefly outlines the conventional threats to the security of the five former Soviet states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It also attempts to identify the common features contributing to insecurity in the region. The new and quite disturbing threat to regional insecurity – the growing risk of a spillover of insurgency into the region from Afghanistan is also discussed.
Uzbekistan foreign policy briefing
Key issues:
1. Human rights. 2. Energy security 3. Regime stability 4. Outlook
The Great Pipeline Opera: Inside the European pipeline fantasy that became a real-life gas war with Russia.
(186 Kb)
When Joschka Fischer's lucrative new job as the "political communications advisor" to a consortium of European energy companies was leaked to a German business publication this summer, there was one comment that stood out. "Welcome to the club," said Gerhard Schröder, an even more highly paid advocate for the other side in Europe's increasingly politicized energy war...
Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook
Key issues:
|
